VolRC RAS scientific journal (printed edition)

Journal section "Economics of Nature"

Architecture of the Model of Prospective Analysis and Planning of Regional Timber Sector Development

Dianov S.V.

5 (91), 2017

Dianov S.V. Architecture of the Model of Prospective Analysis and Planning of Regional Timber Sector Development. Problems of territory's development, 2017, no. 5 (91), pp. 148-163. URL: http://pdt.isert-ran.ru/article/2353?_lang=en

Abstract   |   Authors   |   References
Forest is one of the main resources of our country. It has huge economic, social and cultural significance. It should be noted that its potential is currently underused. Russian forest sector has greater prospects for using in terms of meeting various interests of both the state and the population. It is understood at the state level, resulting in works on improvement of legislation, attracting investments to the timber industry, development of the forest infrastructure, conservation and restoration of forest ecosystems, improving the system of management of the forest sector. As a rule, this is consistent with the results of modern scientific research in this area. However, since forest sector is a multi-aspect system, the inability to assess all the possible consequences of decisions in advance remains a challenge. Therefore, models of the forest sector are becoming more relevant. Their use could help test the generated control mechanisms and present their effectiveness, hence the feasibility of practical implementation. In constructing sectoral models of complex open systems, their overall architecture is particularly important as it helps, on the one hand, define the boundaries of a model and, on the other hand, determine the most optimal structure. The main purpose for the article is to study approaches to building models of the regional forest sector designed for integrated assessment of development taking into consideration the introduced management actions. The article analyses some of the existing approaches to structural formalization of the forest sector functioning, as well as the peculiarities of such systems. The authors define the requirements to the model of regional forest sector, according to which the author’s view on the construction of its architecture is presented. The article considers some aspects of the implementation of its elements. A distinctive feature of the developed architecture is that it is based on the comprehensive, system, ecosystem-based and institutional approaches. This helps create the model closest to the real system of the forest sector based on this architecture. In addition, the architecture design was carried out with a view to practical implementation. The research results are expected to be used for the implementation of an agent-based model of the regional forest sector in the form of a computer system


management system; regional timber sector; prospective analysis; development forecast; architecture of model